The latest JLL report for the period of Q1-Q3 2024 reveals fascinating changes in the Polish warehouse market. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, the market shows signs of recovery while raising many questions about the sector's future.
Increase in Gross Demand and Changes in Lease Structure
Total gross demand in the first three quarters of 2024 reached an impressive level of 3.9 million m², representing an 18% increase compared to the same period in 2023. However, behind this seemingly optimistic result lies a complex market dynamic.A record level of lease renegotiations, reaching 1.4 million m², suggests that companies prefer stabilization in the face of economic uncertainty. At the same time, the retail sector, driven by improvements in e-commerce, demonstrated remarkable activity, leasing over 1 million m², which accounted for 42% of total demand.
Vacancy Rate and Developer Activity
The vacancy rate recorded a slight decrease for the first time since 2022, reaching 8.0%. The total available space amounted to 2.8 million m² and was mainly concentrated in the largest markets. Is this a signal of upcoming changes in the industry? The answer to this question could be crucial for investors and developers.In the first three quarters of 2024, the Polish warehouse and industrial market grew by 2.2 million m², which still represents a decrease of 1 million m² compared to the same period in 2023.Developer activity reached its lowest level since 2020, with only 41% of space being built speculatively. Such a decline may influence further reductions in the vacancy rate but also poses a risk of space shortages in the coming quarters.
Market Outlook and Key Trends
Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and slow economic recovery, forecasts indicate a gradual increase in key markets and sectors. According to Oxford Economics, Poland's GDP is expected to accelerate from 2.3% in 2024 to 3.3% in 2025, allowing the country to close the gap with other economies.
The JLL report provides a deeper analysis of these trends, presenting:
- Detailed regional analysis - which markets are growing fastest and why?
- Rental data - how are rates shaping up in various regions
- Investment market outlook - what strategies dominate among investors?
To understand the full picture of the warehouse sector in Poland, its challenges, and opportunities, we encourage reviewing the full report. The summary of the first three quarters of 2024 includes not only comprehensive data but also expert comments and forecasts that will aid in making strategic business decisions.
