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Polish Warehouse Market: Developers Cautious Despite Increased Demand

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Contract renewals and developer selectivity define the logistics market in Poland in 2025

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Polish Warehouses: Renewals and Sale-and-Leasebacks Still in Demand – Q3 2025 Summary

<h1 style="text-align:justify;">After a year dominated by lease renegotiations, the first half of 2026 brought a visible revival to the Polish warehouse market, driven by growing demand for new space. New leases and expansions already accounted for 60% of occupier activity, while net take-up reached 2.1 million sq m. At the same time, developers’ cautious supply policy has caused available space to disappear from the market at an accelerating pace. Within just three months, the vacancy rate fell from 7.1% to 6.3%. JLL experts summarize Q2 and the first half of 2026 on the Polish warehouse and logistics market.</h1>&nbsp;Beyond the scale of demand itself, its structure also changed significantly in the first half of the year.&nbsp;In 2025, renegotiations and lease renewals accounted for the majority of occupier activity. Companies were primarily focused on securing their existing operations while maintaining a highly cautious approach toward new investments. In H1 2026, however, 60% of occupier activity came from new leases and expansions, with net take-up reaching 2.1 million sq m. Renewals accounted for approximately 1.2 million sq m, while an additional 200,000 sq m came from increasingly popular sale &amp; leaseback transactions. Total gross take-up reached 3.5 million sq m, compared with 2.9 million sq m in the corresponding period of 2025.In recent months, e-commerce has remained one of the key drivers of the market.&nbsp;In H1 2026, companies linked to this sector generated approximately 750,000 sq m of warehouse demand, with more than 400,000 sq m attributed to Chinese e-commerce platforms expanding large-scale distribution operations in Poland. A significant share of this demand was accommodated within existing facilities, which clearly accelerated the absorption of available space and further reduced vacancy levels.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">The Market Geography Is Also Changing</h2>The five largest warehouse hubs accounted for 82% of gross take-up and 77% of net take-up.&nbsp;The highest level of activity was recorded in Upper Silesia, where more than 620,000 sq m was leased, followed by Wrocław with 581,000 sq m and Central Poland with 545,000 sq m. More interesting than the ranking itself, however, are the differences in market structure across various regions of the country.According to JLL experts, new market entries and expansions were particularly concentrated in western and southern Poland.&nbsp;These locations are primarily attractive to international operators and e-commerce platforms, for whom Poland serves not only as a large consumer market but also as a base for servicing customers across Western Europe.Warsaw and Central Poland play a different role, with renewals and lease consolidations related to existing domestic distribution networks accounting for a larger share of activity.&nbsp;As a result, Poland’s warehouse map increasingly reflects a division between locations serving new international trade flows and hubs primarily supported by established domestic operations.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Demand Accelerates Faster Than Construction</h2>Growing occupier activity is increasingly impacting the absorption of existing warehouse space.&nbsp;A large share of new demand in the first half of the year was accommodated within already available facilities, significantly reducing the amount of vacant space on the market. The effect is already visible in availability levels: the vacancy rate fell from 7.1% at the end of March to 6.3% by the end of June.&nbsp;Taking into account vacant modules in existing buildings and speculative space under construction, occupiers had access to only around 2.9 million sq m of available space – approximately 300,000 sq m less than just three months earlier.<blockquote>“The scale of this limited availability is best illustrated by the ratio of available supply to the speed at which the market is absorbing it. Across the Polish market as a whole, the buffer declined from the equivalent of approximately 8.5 months to just 7 months – meaning that, at the average annual net take-up recorded over the past five years, all currently available space would theoretically be absorbed within that period.&nbsp;In some markets, the situation is significantly tighter: the indicator stands at around 5 months in Wrocław and 6 months in Szczecin, the Tri-City area and Central Poland,” comments Maciej Kotowski, Director, Research &amp; Consultancy, JLL.</blockquote>At the same time, developers continue to maintain a cautious approach toward launching new investments.&nbsp;Approximately 1.2 million sq m of new warehouse space was delivered to the market in the first half of the year, a result similar to the new supply recorded in the same periods of both last year and two years ago. As a consequence, Poland’s total modern logistics stock increased to 38.55 million sq m.However, the volume of projects under construction shrank to approximately 1.3 million sq m, down 11% year-on-year.&nbsp;Speculative development activity has been reduced even more sharply. At the end of June, speculative projects accounted for around 503,000 sq m, representing a 17% decline compared with the previous year.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Developers Ready, but Selective</h2>This does not mean, however, that there is no potential for future supply growth.&nbsp;JLL points out that developers possess extensive land banks, but remain cautious about launching new projects without securing pre-let agreements in advance. Following the experiences of recent years and periods of temporary oversupply, greater emphasis is now being placed on risk mitigation and on delivering projects with committed tenants already in place, including build-to-suit developments.<blockquote>“The decline in available warehouse space by approximately 300,000 sq m within just one quarter demonstrates how quickly the occupier offer is shrinking.&nbsp;A vacancy rate of 6.3% may still appear relatively high, but in practice this volume is highly fragmented, and in many locations there is already a shortage of larger units exceeding 30,000 sq m. At the same time, only around 1.3 million sq m remains under construction, which limits the market’s ability to increase supply quickly. If demand remains strong in the coming quarters and rents begin to rise, this could once again increase developers’ appetite for speculative projects,” comments Tomasz Mika, Head of Industrial Agency, JLL.</blockquote><h2 style="text-align:justify;">Availability Declines, Negotiations Become More Challenging</h2>The shrinking availability of space has not yet triggered a sharp increase in rents.&nbsp;In the first half of 2026, headline rents in suburban logistics parks across the five largest markets ranged between €3.50 and €6.00 per sq m per month. In the case of urban warehouses, rents reached €8 per sq m, and in selected prime projects in Warsaw they even exceeded this level. JLL expects rents to remain broadly stable during the remainder of the year.However, stable headline rents do not mean that occupier conditions remain unchanged.&nbsp;As the number of available options declines, owners of the best-performing assets are gaining stronger negotiating positions. As a result, pressure is likely to become visible primarily in effective rents through the reduction of incentives offered to tenants. This particularly applies to the most sought-after locations and modern, energy-efficient buildings.There are also strong indications that the priorities of the largest occupiers will continue to evolve.&nbsp;In an environment shaped by strained supply chains and rapidly shrinking availability of high-quality warehouse space, securing a strategic location may increasingly outweigh the pursuit of the lowest possible rental rate.&nbsp;

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