Panorama Warszawy z mostem wiszącym nad Wisłą i wieżowcami w tle

Poland – your new investment direction. The latest Delivered from Poland 2025 report

Nowoczesne wnętrze pustej hali magazynowej z wysokimi regałami, stalową konstrukcją i betonową posadzką

Stability at the center of change - Polish warehouse market in Q1 2025

Kompleks logistyczny z panelami słonecznymi - widok z lotu ptaka

Record number of lease renewals on the Polish warehouse market - first half of 2025 summary

<p><strong>The summer months of 2025 did not bring significant changes to the domestic warehouse market - both developers and tenants still remained cautious about investment. The structure of demand was dominated by contract renewals, and the volume of leaseback transactions (</strong><i><strong>sale &amp; leaseback</strong></i><strong>) also increased. It is worth noting, however, that thanks to this, gross demand from January to September 2025 amounted to over 4.5 million sqm. That is 17% more than a year ago and only 6% less than in the same period in the record year 2021.&nbsp;Experts from the consulting company JLL summarize the third quarter on the domestic warehouse and logistics real estate market.</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The European warehouse market remains calm – although new demand on the Old Continent recorded another increase compared to the previous quarter, tenants maintain a conservative approach to investment risk. Demand for warehouse space in the first three quarters of 2025 was as much as 21% lower than the 5-year average for such a period.</p><p>As a result, the average vacancy rate for European markets saw another slight increase to 6.3%, which translated into an even more pronounced reduction in speculative space. The 5.4 million sq. m. This is the lowest result since 2021.&nbsp; Persistent difficulties with high financing costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to have a significant impact on investment decisions. Polish's solid economic fundamentals (according to Oxford Economics, our country's economic growth will amount to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026) should allow for market growth and development, but in a long-term and calm perspective.</p><h2>Demand: renegotiations still dominate</h2><p>The current situation on the warehouse market in Poland reflects pan-European trends. New demand, which in the period of Q1-Q3. 2025 reached 2.2 million sqm in Poland, although it grew quarter on quarter, it did not exceed the result from the corresponding period of 2024 (-12%). The calmed but relatively stable new demand was offset by renewals and extensions of existing contracts. The Polish market, based on modern infrastructure of high quality, is conducive to decisions to maintain leases in existing locations, and record volumes of renegotiations are additionally supported by the 3- and 5-year cycle of contracts signed in the unprecedented years of 2021 and 2022. As a result, renewals reached in Q1-Q3. 2025, the result exceeding 2.35 million sqm.<br>&nbsp;</p><p>"<i>If we add the volume of increasingly popular sale &amp; leaseback transactions to net demand and contract extensions, we will get gross take-up of almost 4.5 million sqm in the analysed period, which is 17% more than a year ago and only 6% less than in the same period in the record year 2021. This remains a confirmation of the resilience, gradual improvement of the condition and continued attractiveness of the Polish industrial and logistics sector</i> ," comments <strong>Maciej Kotowski, Director,</strong>&nbsp;<strong>Research &amp; Consultancy, JLL Poland</strong>.</p><h2>Geography of demand: safe "Big Five"</h2><p>The high volume of renegotiations and the limited propensity for intensive expansion among many tenants supported activity in the safe markets of the "Big Five". In total, almost 75% of the total demand recorded so far in 2025 has been concentrated there.</p><p>Warsaw remained the most active logistics market in the country, accounting for 23% of total gross demand (over 1 million sqm). Wroclaw, Silesia and Central Poland accounted for about 15% each. On the warehouse map of Polish, the coastal markets also stood out - Tri-City (270,000 sqm) and Szczecin (270,000 sqm), which are consistently strengthening their strong position and reducing the distance to other major markets.</p><h2>Vacancies: cosmetic declines</h2><p>Gradually increasing absorption and still limited developer activity led to another small (0.4 pp y-y) decline in the vacancy rate. In the third quarter of 2025, this index was 7.8%, which corresponded to about 2.9 million sqm. available space. However, it is worth noting that these resources remain fragmented and dispersed across many different buildings and modules.</p><p>The vacancy rate fluctuated between markets. In the case of the "Big Five", it ranged from 4.3% in the vicinity of Warsaw to 10% in Wrocław. On the other hand, markets such as m.in Kraków, Szczecin, Opole, Olsztyn and Białystok maintained indicators below 3.5%.</p><h2>Supply: developers are becoming less and less active</h2><p>Limited developer activity significantly affected the result of new supply, which in Q3. 2025 amounted to only 400,000 sqm. So far in 2025, about 1.5 million sqm have been commissioned, i.e. about 30% less than in the same period a year ago.</p><p>The expansion was driven by Wrocław and Upper Silesia, where developers completed 344,000 sqm, respectively. and 275,000 sqm. In addition, both the Warsaw market and Central Poland recorded a new supply exceeding 200,000 sqm.</p><p>In the third quarter of 2025, the total area of projects under construction increased slightly to 1.56 million sqm. at the end of the third quarter. Speculative activity totaled 700,000 sqm. A slight increase in speculative space may indicate that developers remain optimistic about future absorption capacity in key markets.</p><h2>Rents: no significant changes</h2><p>Stabilized development activity ensured the strengthening of current rental values and most locations maintained similar rates. Nevertheless, upward pressure on rents continues, particularly for prime locations and newly completed assets.</p><p>Rents for suburban logistics parks within the "Big Five" markets ranged from €3.5 to €5.5 per square metre per month. Urban locations maintained rates of up to 8 euros per square meter per month, and even more for the best spaces in Warsaw.</p><h2>Employee comfort in the center of tenants' attention</h2><p>JLL experts point out that the slowdown in the market is being used by tenants and warehouse owners to improve the standard of occupied space, implement changes in the internal work culture and introduce innovations such as robots and advanced automation.&nbsp;</p><p><br>"<i>Although at first glance the warehouse market is calmer, in reality there is a quiet revolution. It is clear that today it is the human being and the conditions offered to him are becoming one of the key elements of companies' strategies. Therefore, taking care of the comfort of work - comfortable social zones or greenery around - is no longer a nice addition, but a concrete investment that helps to get the best employees in a difficult market. At the same time, robots and intelligent systems are entering large-scale warehouses. In addition to continuous efficiency improvement, a new goal is coming to the fore today: building resilience to supply chain disruptions. As a result, the warehouse is transformed from a simple building for storing goods into the heart of a modern company. Those companies that today best combine satisfied employees with modern technology will gain a key advantage as soon as the economy accelerates again</i>,"<strong> </strong>says <strong>Mateusz Iłowiecki,&nbsp;Senior Director in the Warehouse and Industrial Department, JLL Poland</strong>.&nbsp;</p>

Aerial view of a modern warehouse with solar panels, and energy infrastructure surrounded by greenery, roads, and a sports court, located near a river with ships passing by.