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Contract renewals and developer selectivity define the logistics market in Poland in 2025

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Polish Warehouses: Renewals and Sale-and-Leasebacks Still in Demand – Q3 2025 Summary

Panorama Warszawy z mostem wiszącym nad Wisłą i wieżowcami w tle

Poland – your new investment direction. The latest Delivered from Poland 2025 report

<p><span style="font-size:22px;"><strong>The first quarter of 2026 in the Polish warehouse and logistics market confirmed strong fundamentals and continued the momentum observed in the second half of the previous year. Although activity in lease renewals declined marginally after a record 2025, momentum was maintained by new demand, driven largely by the expansion of logistics operators and the persistent appetite of Asian platforms. Simultaneously, the volume of delivered and under-construction space remained limited, which as expected translated into another decline in the vacancy rate. In parallel, the investment warehouse market in Poland recorded exceptional results in the first quarter of 2026, with transaction volume reaching €450 million – the strongest year opening in six years and the second-best Q1 in the market's history.</strong></span></p><h2>Demand: Stable New Requirements</h2><p>In the first quarter of 2026, total gross demand in the warehouse market in Poland amounted to approximately 1.6 million sqm, while the structure remained relatively stable. New contracts and expansions accounted for around 54%, outpacing renewals in this quarter. Furthermore, the market was additionally driven by further sale &amp; leaseback transactions. Market maturity and improving economic indicators provide grounds for greater predictability, which unlike temporary fluctuations, should be noticed and appreciated by developers and the investment market.</p><blockquote><p>"Poland is strengthening its position in Europe not only through transaction volume, but above all through the quality of decisions being made. We are seeing tenants increasingly moving away from short-term cost optimization toward building long-term operational stability. In their strategies, it's no longer just rents that are crucial, but real energy efficiency, workplace environment quality, as well as flexibility and the property's potential to adapt to future technologies. Operational security has become more valuable than the lowest rent," says <strong>Tomasz Mika, Head of Industrial Agency, JLL</strong>.</p></blockquote><h2>Vacancy: Maintained Downward Trajectory</h2><p>Still-limited development activity combined with a stable level of new demand led to a further decline in the vacancy rate. At the end of March 2026, it stood at approximately 7.1%, marking another quarter of gradual absorption of available space.</p><h2>Supply: Developers Still Very Cautious</h2><p>Approximately 650,000 sqm of new space was delivered in Q1 2026. On the other hand, developers launched merely 320,000 sqm of new developments, which places additional pressure on the absorption of existing vacant space.</p><p>Under construction remain mainly projects secured by pre-let agreements (lease contracts signed before the building's completion), which account for over 60% of only 1.5 million sqm of total volume under construction. Developers continue to take a cautious approach to starting new investment phases, focusing primarily on commercializing existing stock and projects carried out in the best locations.</p><blockquote><p>"Although the market still offers a range of expansion opportunities, in key locations a limited selection of large modules available immediately is becoming increasingly evident. This particularly concerns modern parks that meet high technical and ESG standards. Despite the vacancy rate of 7.1% translating to approximately 2.7 million sqm across Poland, it should be remembered that these are mostly small, scattered modules. Realistically, when considering leasing space above 30,000 sqm immediately, a tenant has only a few options to choose from, and a longer list opens up only within a 9-12 month perspective," says <strong>Maciej Kotowski, Director, Research, JLL</strong>.</p></blockquote><h2>Rents: Stabilization with Pressure in Prime Locations</h2><p>In the first quarter of 2026, headline rents remained stable in most major warehouse markets. Simultaneously, the continuing limited development activity and decreasing availability of prime modules are beginning to strengthen rental pressure in selected locations.</p><h2>Outlook for Coming Quarters</h2><p>JLL experts indicate that the coming months, together with improving consumer sentiment, may bring further gradual growth in tenant activity in the logistics market, naturally provided there is relative stability on the economic and geopolitical fronts.</p><p>Another driver for the market will be Asian e-commerce platforms growing in Europe and company activity related to nearshoring processes (the relocation of manufacturing facilities to Europe).</p><p>The continuing caution of developers may lead to a more pronounced limitation in the availability of modern warehouse space in selected regions of the country. This particularly concerns large modules in the best logistics locations, which even today remain relatively difficult to access.</p><blockquote><p>"We are entering a period of market paradox. We observe growing demand and appetite for expansion from tenants, which contrasts with developers' great caution in launching new projects. This growing imbalance, if it persists, will directly translate into limited availability of modern space in the most desirable locations. The market's comfort of choice has ended, and the race against time has begun," summarizes <strong>Tomasz Mika</strong>.</p></blockquote><h2>Investment Revival</h2><p>The investment warehouse market in Poland began 2026 with great momentum, recording €450 million in transaction volume in the first quarter. This was the strongest Q1 result in six years and the second-best first quarter in the market's history. During the quarter, nine transactions were completed, with the three largest accounting for 72% of total volume. Assets with long lease agreements – including sale &amp; leaseback transactions – represented approximately 85% of invested capital in the first quarter.</p><p>The market is clearly dividing into two segments. Assets with long lease agreements, including sale &amp; leaseback transactions, which form the foundation of the market, are experiencing yield compression as a result of strong investor demand amid limited supply. On the other hand, multi-let properties remain under pricing pressure due to oversupply and a limited number of buyers.</p><blockquote><p>"In an environment of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, Poland stands out with solid macroeconomic fundamentals, which attracts the attention of international investors. The strong start to the year confirms growing capital interest in the Polish warehouse market. A diversified investor base, encompassing capital from the United States, France and the CEE region, as well as a growing number of transaction structures, including sale &amp; leaseback, indicate market maturity and liquidity. The forecasted improvement in the leasing market should increase the investment attractiveness of multi-let projects with shorter lease terms. In parallel, the continuing strong interest in assets with long-term contracts, which remain the market's foundation, will continue to support investor activity. As a result, we anticipate that total investment volume in the warehouse sector in 2026 may exceed €2 billion," says <strong>Michał Mania, Senior Director, Capital Markets, JLL</strong>.</p></blockquote>

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