Aerial view of a modern warehouse with solar panels, and energy infrastructure surrounded by greenery, roads, and a sports court, located near a river with ships passing by.

Polish Warehouses: Renewals and Sale-and-Leasebacks Still in Demand – Q3 2025 Summary

Panorama Warszawy z mostem wiszącym nad Wisłą i wieżowcami w tle

Poland – your new investment direction. The latest Delivered from Poland 2025 report

Nowoczesne wnętrze pustej hali magazynowej z wysokimi regałami, stalową konstrukcją i betonową posadzką

Stability at the center of change - Polish warehouse market in Q1 2025

In 2025, the warehouse market in Poland was very active – total gross take-up amounted to over 6.8 million sqm. And it was the second best result after the record 2021. However, its structure has changed – for the first time in history, new net demand (3.3 million sq m) was lower than contract renewals (3.5 million sq m). Experts from the consulting company JLL summarize 2025 in the warehouse and logistics real estate sector in Poland.&nbsp;"In 2025, the warehouse market in Poland was very active, but instead of spectacular records, we saw a thorough ordering of existing portfolios. Companies have been renegotiating existing contracts more often – more than 3.5 million m² of space was extended in the whole of 2025 – because they understand the full cost of a move better than ever: from CAPEX to supply chain disruption risk and hiring new employees. It is becoming increasingly clear that the direction of the market is determined not so much by the scale of the area, but by the adjustment of facilities to the needs of business - technological, cost and operational. At the same time, the market is constantly stratifying: in addition to classic logistics, formats for e-commerce, e-grocers and parcel locker chains are developing," comments Tomasz Mika, Head of Industrial Agency, JLL.A factor motivating tenants to renew the lease agreement in the currently occupied building are also modernizations, widely implemented by owners and managers of warehouse parks.&nbsp;In 2025, the geographical structure of the Polish logistics market did not change, and tenants showed confidence mainly in the largest centers in the country. Only three regions – Warsaw, Central Poland and Upper Silesia – accounted for more than half of total gross demand. In each of them, over 1 million sq. m. (most of them were contract extensions). The coastal markets - Tri-City and Szczecin - also stood out, generating a total of over 670,000 sqm. total demand. It is worth noting that in the vicinity of Gdańsk and Gdynia, the new net demand alone amounted to as much as 275,000 sqm. A similar result was also recorded in Krakow, where newly emerging investments opened up new lease opportunities.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Supply and developer activity</h2>2025 was another year of selective activity by developers. New supply declined in each subsequent quarter of 2025, reaching only 140,000 sqm. in the period October-December.&nbsp; In total, 1.7 million sqm was completed last year, which is a decrease of 35% compared to 2024 and as much as 47% less than the average of the last five years.At the beginning of 2026, Polish's warehouse stock amounted to 37.2 million sqm, and another 1.8 million sqm. is under construction. Although the area of projects under construction shows slight growth, it remains well below the levels recorded in the record boom years of 2021-2022."The structure of the planned investments clearly shows the cautious approach of developers to new projects. In the fourth quarter of 2025, only about 700,000 sqm. (about 40% of total activity) was built on a speculative basis. The supply constraint affects the decline in the vacancy rate, which as a result may gradually generate pressure on rents," says Maciej Kotowski, Director, Research &amp; Consultancy, JLL.&nbsp;<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Vacancies</h2>Limited supply combined with stable net demand (3.3 million sqm) this is a result close to the five-year average) caused a further decline in the vacancy rate, which in December 2025 amounted to 7.3%. In total, about 3.3 million sqm of space under construction and existing space is available, although these resources are largely fragmented between regions and individual parks. As a result, there is a risk of supply shortage in some regions.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Rents</h2>Moderate developer activity has helped to keep rents at stable levels. Rates in non-urban logistics parks in the five largest markets ranged from EUR 3.50 to EUR 6.00 per sq m. per month, while in urban locations they remained stable at about EUR 8.00 (although in the case of the best properties in Warsaw they were even higher).Upward pressure on rents remains evident, particularly in key locations and newly completed properties, which is reflected in the gradual increase in the upper limit of base rents. On the other hand, the still elevated vacancy rate resulted in a slight adjustment in effective rents in 2025. In order to secure the lease, the selected developers showed greater flexibility in negotiations. The growing gap between nominal and effective values also highlights the maturity of our market, supported by a variety of formats, standards and locations.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Investment attractiveness</h2>The industrial sector remained the core pillar of the commercial real estate investment market throughout 2025, with a total of 34 transactions completed during this period, which is the highest result since 2022. Rising average contract values and a robust list of planned deals underscore investor confidence in this asset class.The value of investments in industrial real estate reached €1.5 billion last year, a significant increase of 12% compared to 2024. This figure does not take into account the landmark international acquisition of GLP Capital Partners Limited by Ares Management Corporation, which changed the ownership structures of many industrial parks around the world, including Poland.One of the most noticeable trends in 2025 was the growing popularity of sale &amp; leaseback transactions. Both investors and companies increasingly see this model as an effective way to free up capital from their assets. For investors, leaseback transactions provide long-term lease security and stable cash flow, making them particularly attractive during periods of uncertainty related to customs duties and international trade.In December 2025, the capitalization rates of the best multi-tenant projects with an average lease length of about five years were about 6.50%, for the most attractive assets in Warsaw they were slightly higher - about 6.25%.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Prospects for the future&nbsp;</h2>"With the current situation, we can expect that those who do not wait for ideal conditions will gain a market advantage. If the current caution of developers continues, in a moment the volume of modern space may significantly decrease in the most desirable locations and segments, especially with regard to large modules of a high standard. According to our data, only 10 modules with an area of more than 30,000 sqm are currently available in the whole of Poland. On the other hand, the shadow of geopolitics, including the potential end of the war in Ukraine, creates completely new scenarios. Poland has a chance to become a logistics hub for reconstruction and the main beneficiary of the reorganization of supply chains in the region, and the first possible challenges will relate to the labor market and the availability of materials. Therefore, we expect 2026 to continue stable growth, based on well-thought-out decisions - with an emphasis on the quality and flexibility of the portfolio," forecasts Tomasz Mika, Head of Industrial Agency, JLL.

Modern warehouse interior with gray walls, white ceiling and LED lighting. Empty high-standard warehouse space.