Modern warehouse building with a glass façade and loading area in a logistics park.

Warehouses: The Quiet Pillar of Economic Security

Przemysł 5.0 w logistyce: jak zmienia się rola magazynów w Polsce i Europie

Industry 5.0 in Logistics: How the Role of Warehouses is Changing in Poland and Europe

Three business professionals analyzing supply chain performance data and logistics metrics on a large digital display screen in a modern office environment.

Conscious Trade-offs: The New Logic of Logistics Management

<h3>In 2025, gross demand for warehouse space in Poland should approach the levels of the record years 2021-22. However, the result was driven by completely different factors. The low activity of developers, who have significantly reduced new supply, may be worrying. As a result, in the coming years, we may have to deal with market shortages of space. Experts from the consulting company JLL summarize the past 12 months on the domestic warehouse market and forecast the most important trends in 2026.</h3>&nbsp;JLL experts predict that total gross demand for warehouse space in 2025 will amount to approximately 6 million sqm, which will be similar to the record years 2021-22 and about 10% higher than the 5-year average. However, the structure has been reversed - such a good result is the result of very numerous contract renewals (including sale &amp; leaseback transactions), which are responsible for about half of the total gross demand. By comparison, in 2021, renewals accounted for just 22% of transactions, and in 2022 - 32%.&nbsp;However, it is also worth noting the new net demand, which has remained constant at around 3 million sqm since 2023. per year. This is still a very good result, showing the maturity and healthy structure of the domestic market. Warehouse resources in Poland are very attractive, relatively young and still modern, which is why tenants do not feel qualitative pressure to change the warehouse and often decide to stay in the occupied facility. At the same time, new players continue to appear, both from abroad and companies with local pedigrees, and current tenants are developing their business, which leads to the expansion of warehouse space.<blockquote>"A stable level of new demand is something on which forecasts for 2026 can be built. We do not expect big changes here - rather a continuation of current trends. Companies today act very rationally, every decision to rent new space is carefully calculated. On the one hand, we have new players entering the Polish market, and on the other hand, we have current tenants developing their operations. This gives us a stable demand for new space. We also assume that companies will continue to release capital from real estate through their sale and leaseback, i.e. the so-called sale &amp; leaseback&nbsp;," comments Tomasz Mika, Head of Industrial Agency, JLL.&nbsp;</blockquote>Invariably, the largest markets, the so-called "Big Five", are responsible for the majority (about 75%) of total demand. However, it is worth paying attention to the regional growth engines, i.e. the Tri-City and Szczecin, which, together with Krakow, today form a strong "Tier 2" of the Polish warehouse sector. We expect that at the end of 2025, both in the Tri-City and Szczecin, gross demand will exceed 300 thousand sqm. and will most likely repeat - and perhaps even exceed - this result in the coming 12 months.&nbsp;<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Little new supply</h2>2025 was an exceptionally calm year in terms of developer activity. JLL experts estimate that for the whole of this year, the new supply will amount to just over 2 million sqm, which is 40% less than the 5-year average and as much as 60% less than the record year 2022. This situation can be explained by the industry's reaction to the stabilization of the dynamics of new demand and the need to absorb a relatively large volume of space built speculatively (perhaps slightly overestimated), delivered in 2022 and 2023 (4.5 and 4 million sqm, respectively)<blockquote>"We do not expect the developer boom to return, but in the most likely scenario, the scale of new supply will gradually increase in 2026. At the same time, in many locations, there is a very limited availability of ready-made, large modules, especially in the range of 20-30 thousand sqm. and larger, prompting companies to consider Built-to-Suit projects. From the perspective of talks with tenants, there is a clear change in expectations - ESG has ceased to be an option and has become a standard, and more and more often at an early stage there are questions about preparing facilities for automation and robotic systems. It is the combination of growing quality requirements and limited availability of ready-made space that naturally drives interest in BTS projects – forecasts Mateusz Iłowiecki, Senior Director, Industrial Agency, JLL.</blockquote><h2 style="text-align:justify;">Vacancies affect rents</h2>Rents for warehouse space remained at a similar level as a year earlier. However, in the case of the latest, best investments - especially those with implemented ESG solutions - growth pressure can be observed. Our market is maturing and offers an increasingly wide range of facilities, differing, among other things, in age, standard, location or availability of infrastructure. In the case of selected projects and large contracts with proven and trusted tenants, developers may be more willing to negotiate and offer so-called incentives today.&nbsp;<blockquote>"We estimate that the average vacancy rate across Poland will remain below 8% and even close to 7%. This means about 3 million sqm. free area - a volume that is consistently melting. While for several years the net demand has remained at a level close to 3 million sq. m. Annually, developers deliver 2 million sq. m. new space. This means a potential supply gap of up to one million sqm. per year. Since a drop in the vacancy rate below 5% is unlikely (there are simply "non-lettable" spaces, small, divided modules, scattered throughout Poland), if the current market dynamics continue, we would be dealing with a shortage of warehouse space in a year's time. A This would certainly mean the developer's market and an increase in rental rates ," says Maciej Kotowski, Director, Research &amp; Consultancy, JLL.</blockquote><h2 style="text-align:justify;">What else is in 2026?&nbsp;</h2>The whole of Europe and the world are waiting for the end of the war in Ukraine, which may take place within the next 12 months. Undoubtedly, this will also be a breakthrough event for the warehouse market in Poland. However, a lot depends on the terms of the agreement, which are not yet known. If the peace talks drag on, it is possible that demand will be further halted, as interested players will wait for official terms before taking further steps later. This may significantly weaken the results of new demand, but with the prospect of a solid rebound after the agreement is concluded. This, in turn, would probably lead to a shortage of space on the market, especially given today's advantage of demand over new supply.&nbsp;There is also another scenario in which both developers and tenants will want to close the processes of project implementation and pre-lease as soon as possible, even before the official announcement of the expected room. This would allow them to avoid potential increases in construction prices, materials and lower availability of general contractors who could then be involved in projects on the territory of Ukraine.&nbsp;Regardless of the scenario, the undoubted beneficiary of the peace will be the south-eastern, border regions of the country, where the activity of developers will be concentrated. If materials related to the reconstruction of Ukraine are transported by sea (and some of them will certainly be), port markets such as Gdańsk and Szczecin may additionally become more important.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Expansion of Asian automotive</h2>Chinese electric car manufacturers, who are already thinking about relocating their factories to Europe in order to avoid EU tariffs, will certainly want to take advantage of the difficult time for German industry and the automotive industry&nbsp; . You will also need all the technological facilities and the production of spare parts. Regions in the west and south of Polish, especially the Lubuskie and Silesian voivodeships, which have long been associated with the automotive industry, may benefit from this. The slowdown beyond the western border is reflected in the situation in warehouses on the S3 expressway – the vacancy rate in the Lubuskie Voivodeship ranged from about 15 to over 20% this year. And there were years when it was one of the most attractive, desirable and active markets in the country.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">E-commerce from the East and the development of e-grocery</h2>While Western e-commerce (e.g. Amazon, Zalando) has slowed down significantly, Asian platforms have appeared on the market. Since the end of 2023, SHEIN has leased a total of over 700,000 sqm in the Wrocław area. This improved demand performance and showed that there is room for new players in e-commerce.&nbsp;<blockquote>"The e-commerce market is entering a maturity phase. The success of Asian platforms like SHEIN shows the high price sensitivity of consumers, but it is mainly due to cost and regulatory advantages rather than a persistent market gap. At the same time, there is a strong segmentation - universal models are losing their importance in favor of specialized formats, where profitability and operational efficiency become crucial. These changes directly translate into a growing diversity of logistics and warehouse needs. In addition to mass distribution models, specialized&nbsp;fulfillment centers are developing, supporting short series, high turnover,&nbsp;omnichannel or industry-specific requirements. Logistics is no longer an exclusively operational function, and is increasingly becoming an integral element of the competitive strategy of e-commerce companies," emphasizes Paulina Dziubińska, Senior Director, Industrial Agency, JLL.</blockquote>Falling inflation and growing purchasing power make Poles spend more and more on consumption and are more willing to shop online, including groceries. The convenience and efficiency of the process are conducive to the development of the e-grocery sector - facilities of this type require advanced and tailor-made warehouses, i.e. high initial outlays, but thanks to the use of robots and automation, they allow for the execution of thousands of orders every day. A good example of this is one of the most modern distribution centres in Europe, Auchan in Wilcza Góra near Warsaw, which JLL also worked on. Further investments in this sector seem to be only a matter of time.&nbsp;<h2 style="text-align:justify;">The labour market and the announced increase in the minimum wage</h2>Minimum wage increases are always a challenge for the logistics and manufacturing industries, for which labor costs make up a large part of the budget. The end of the conflict beyond our eastern border would be an additional shock to the labor market in Poland, as it would be associated with the outflow of some Ukrainian workers, including those employed in warehouses.&nbsp;So how to protect yourself from a shortage of hands to work? Tenants should compete for an employee not only with a salary, but at the same time put more emphasis on the broadly understood well-being of their team. Improved working conditions, non-wage allowances, special facilities at the place of performance (e.g. green zones, relaxation areas, gyms, convenient access) - all these solutions affect the attractiveness of the place of employment and strengthen employee engagement.&nbsp;

Modern warehouse building with glass facades and metal terrace where three people are having a business conversation in sunlight.