Uśmiechnięta kobieta w niebieskim kasku i okularach ochronnych oraz mężczyzna w pomarańczowych kamizelkach odblaskowych, pozytywna atmosfera w magazynie.

Wellbeing in Warehousing. A New Standard in the Competition for Talent

Modern warehouse building with glass facades and metal terrace where three people are having a business conversation in sunlight.

Polish warehouse market: growth in a different way

Yellow industrial robot in an automated warehouse sorting packages against the backdrop of tall shelves filled with cardboard boxes. The image illustrates modern AI and robotics solutions in re-commerce logistics, as discussed in the JLL material.

Re-commerce is revolutionizing the warehouse market. Will your company benefit from this transformation?

We typically view the warehouse market through the lens of rents, vacancy rates, and new developments. Yet, as Tomasz Mika, Head of Industrial Agency department at JLL, highlighted during the Real Estate Forum in Sopot, demographic shifts will play an increasingly significant role in shaping the sector's future. His conversation with Tomasz Cudowski from Estate FM served as a starting point for examining how an aging society and a shrinking workforce may influence warehouse occupier decisions in Poland.<h2>Warehouses: critical yet long "invisible"</h2>For many years, warehouses operated in the shadow of other real estate segments - we saw them mainly from motorways, rarely recognizing them as a sector of systemic importance.&nbsp;As Tomasz Mika observes, their role has long been significant, yet it remained largely unnoticed:<blockquote>"Warehouses (...) have played a crucial role from the very beginning,"&nbsp;notes Tomasz Mika, adding that for a long time they remained invisible to many market participants and to society at large.</blockquote>It took the COVID-19 pandemic to make many businesses and consumers realize how heavily daily functioning depends on efficient supply chains. Disruptions in warehouse operations quickly translated into shortages of basic products, demonstrating that this segment is far more than just a back-office function for retail or manufacturing.<h2>Demographics: a different consumer, a different labor market</h2>In Sopot, Tomasz Mika drew attention to a factor that has rarely featured in discussions about Poland's warehouse market: demographics. Its impact is visible in two key areas.First, the consumer profile is changing. Poland is among the countries where the population will systematically decline in the coming decades. According to the main scenario of Statistics Poland's (GUS) "Population Forecast for 2023-2060," the population will decrease from approximately 37.8 million in 2022 to around 30.9 million in 2060 - a drop of over 6.9 million. At the same time, the share of elderly people is growing, and households are becoming smaller.<blockquote>"An aging society in Poland will cause consumers to have different habits, different needs, different expectations regarding the way of consumption and how quickly these goods reach them - so this must have an impact on warehouse infrastructure,"&nbsp;emphasizes Tomasz Mika.</blockquote>For occupiers, this translates into greater importance placed on more frequent, smaller deliveries and logistics closer to the customer's place of residence.Second, demographics directly affect the labor market. GUS projections indicate that the working-age population (18-59/64 years) will fall from approximately 22.17 million in 2022 to around 15.10 million in 2060 under the average scenario - a decline of over 7.07 million. In other words, within a few decades, there will be significantly fewer people potentially available for work, including in warehouses.<h2>What this means for warehouse occupiers</h2>Demographic changes overlap with the continued growth of e-commerce and courier services. In practice, this translates into three directions that occupiers are increasingly considering:<ul><li>Location closer to urban agglomerations.&nbsp;Shorter delivery times and servicing more frequent, smaller orders favor selecting facilities located near major cities and suburban zones. This is where both consumer demand and the available workforce are concentrated.</li><li>Greater format diversification.&nbsp;Alongside large logistics parks, urban warehouses, last-mile facilities, and specialized space (e.g., cold storage) are gaining importance, enabling better alignment with local demand structures.</li><li>Forward planning.&nbsp;Occupiers making location decisions based not only on "here and now" data but also on demographic forecasts for specific regions minimize the risk of recruitment challenges in the years ahead.</li></ul><h2>Fewer hands available: working conditions and automation</h2>The decline in the working-age population means increasing competition for workers in the warehouse market. In response, as Tomasz Mika points out, the industry is evolving in two directions.First, the quality of the working environment is gaining importance. New projects increasingly incorporate modern welfare facilities, solutions improving ergonomics and safety, and more stable employment models - elements of building competitive advantage in regions where the labor pool is limited.Second, process automation accelerates. This includes both large-scale systems and modular, flexible solutions that can be implemented in phases and relocated between facilities. Designing buildings with future automation in mind is also gaining prominence - ensuring adequate floor loading capacity, appropriate installation layouts, and provisions for energy requirements.<h2>The Polish perspective: demographics as a strategic decision filter</h2>Economic forecasts for Poland in the coming years remain relatively stable, and the country is strengthening its position as a major warehouse market in Central and Eastern Europe. This presents an opportunity for investors and occupiers, but also a context in which the significance of demographics will become increasingly tangible.GUS data show a long-term population decline and a marked reduction in the working-age population. In practice, this means that when selecting locations, planning facility formats, determining automation levels, or devising recruitment strategies, demographics should be treated as a permanent element of analysis, not merely background to current market indicators.<hr>Based on a conversation between Tomasz Mika (JLL) and Tomasz Cudowski (Estate FM) recorded during the Real Estate Forum in Sopot. Listen to the full interview:&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KZK0s4ltoA ">HERE</a>.

Four JLL representatives standing at a June event in Sopot in front of a backdrop reading "Forum Rynku Nieruchomości - Polish Real Estate Forum".