Four JLL representatives standing at a June event in Sopot in front of a backdrop reading "Forum Rynku Nieruchomości - Polish Real Estate Forum".

How is the role of warehouses changing in the Polish economy? Insights from the Real Estate Forum in Sopot

Uśmiechnięta kobieta w niebieskim kasku i okularach ochronnych oraz mężczyzna w pomarańczowych kamizelkach odblaskowych, pozytywna atmosfera w magazynie.

Wellbeing in Warehousing. A New Standard in the Competition for Talent

Modern warehouse building with glass facades and metal terrace where three people are having a business conversation in sunlight.

Polish warehouse market: growth in a different way

<h1 style="text-align:justify;">Poland is entering a phase where demographics cease to be merely background context for business decisions and instead become one of the primary factors shaping the economy and commercial real estate market. By 2035, Poland will lose 1.2 million inhabitants, the number of people aged 25-44 will shrink by approximately 2 million, and nearly one in four Poles will be over 65. Simultaneously, online commerce will grow rapidly - over the next 10 years,&nbsp; e-commerce volume will increase by 106%, equivalent to approximately PLN 97 billion. According to the latest research by advisory firm JLL, for the warehouse market this signals the end of an era of growth based on the availability of cheap labor and the beginning of a new model where competitive advantage will be determined by asset flexibility, readiness for modular automation, and the ability to service the fastest-growing demand segments: e-commerce, e-grocery, and cold chain.</h1>One of the key demographic forecasts for the real estate market indicates that despite the country's shrinking population, the number of households will maintain an upward trend. According to the baseline scenario from Poland's Central Statistical Office (GUS), by 2035 Poland will lose 1.2 million inhabitants, but simultaneously the number of households will increase by approximately 200,000. The reason is the systematic decline in the average number of people per household. This is crucial information not only for the real estate market but for the entire economy. Population decline does not automatically mean a proportional drop in demand. The growing number of singles, "empty nesters" (households whose adult children have left), and smaller households will continue to sustain consumption, demand for warehouse space, and the need for efficient logistics.At the same time, the 25-44 age group is shrinking dramatically - a cohort of particular significance for the labor market, generating strong consumption and significantly impacting demand for office and warehouse space. By 2035, it will lose approximately 2 million people, roughly equivalent to Warsaw's entire population. In parallel, the share of older age groups is growing. In just a decade, almost one in four Poles will be over 65, signifying a profound change in the structure of purchases, services, and goods flows.<blockquote>"Demographics is not a risk that appears suddenly. It's a megatrend that can be modeled well in advance. For the commercial real estate market, the next 10 years represent the last opportunity to translate this knowledge into investment, location, and product decisions. After 2035, the processes that are only now gaining momentum will operate with much greater force. This applies to both labor supply and demand geography as well as asset resilience. Therefore, demographic changes can be a source of advantage for those who adjust their strategy sufficiently early,"&nbsp;says Jan Jakub Zombirt, Head of Research, JLL.</blockquote><h2 style="text-align:justify;">Warehouses Enter the Age of Adaptation</h2>For the warehouse market, this means a change in the operating model. For years, its development was based on a combination of a large market, suitable location, and relatively competitive labor costs. These advantages aren't disappearing, but they're no longer sufficient. JLL data shows that between 2019-2025, warehouse space inventory in Poland more than doubled, while the working-age population decreased by approximately 8% in key logistics centers. During the same period, the average unemployment rate in the most important logistics hubs dropped to around 3%, effectively meaning virtually no labor reserves. It can also be expected that after the war ends on our eastern border, the presence of Ukrainians in the labor market will decrease. According to JLL experts, the warehouse sector will begin transitioning from a model based on low labor costs to an environment based on technology and infrastructure, where automation, proximity to key transportation routes, access to energy, and building quality itself become increasingly important.<blockquote>"Decreasing worker availability makes operational risk calculation more important than ever. The threat of downtime is now a real business risk that even the lowest rent cannot compensate for. The natural response to labor shortages is automation, but it alone won't solve the problem if it doesn't have appropriate support. That's why facilities that offer long-term process stability, not just the lowest rate per square meter, are gaining value. In practice, this primarily means access to adequate energy capacity, with guaranteed future expansion, and flexibility that allows space adaptation for various automation systems. Companies investing millions in technology must be certain that the building won't become a barrier to their development in several years and won't force them into costly relocation,"&nbsp;says Tomasz Mika, Head of Industrial Agency, JLL.</blockquote><h2 style="text-align:justify;">Automation Will Grow, But Not in an "All In" Model</h2>JLL notes that the market's response won't be a mass transition to fully unmanned warehouses. Much more likely is the development of modular automation - solutions that can be implemented in stages, scaled, transferred, and adapted to current logistics needs. Rising labor costs are changing automation economics - higher employee costs mean greater operational savings from implementing automated solutions, which significantly shortens the investment return period. This shifts automation from the "nice to have" category to the "should consider" category.However, the level of automation alone won't be the only criterion for competitive advantage. The building's ability to adapt to different business models will be fundamentally important. Therefore, technical parameters are becoming increasingly important, such as at least 12 meters of clear height, appropriate floor load capacity and flatness, greater connection capacity, and the ability to subsequently strengthen and reconfigure the facility. In the new market logic, a warehouse shouldn't just be modern - it must be future-ready.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">E-commerce Will Grow, Labor Availability Will Fall</h2>Online commerce remains a strong driver of this transformation. According to the proprietary JLL E-commerce Index model developed by JLL analysts, average e-commerce penetration in Poland will increase from 9.1% in 2025 to 14.6% in 2035. This represents a 5.5 percentage point increase nationwide. Real online sales volume will increase by 106%, approximately PLN 97 billion, from about PLN 92 billion in 2025. This is growth that the market will need to service while total worker availability decreases by approximately 3.5%. In practice, this means a simple relationship: more packages will need to be delivered with fewer hands. This tension cannot be resolved without improving operational efficiency, automation, and redesigning the distribution network.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Last-Mile Logistics Becomes a Challenge for Large Metropolitan Areas</h2>JLL research shows that e-commerce growth won't be evenly distributed. Already, approximately 30% of all online commerce is concentrated in the five largest cities, which represent only 13% of Poland's population. Warsaw alone accounts for approximately 16.1% of national e-commerce volume in the 2035 perspective, and online commerce value in the capital is expected to grow from PLN 14.6 billion in 2025 to PLN 30.4 billion in 2035.Areas with the greatest projected growth in e-commerce importance include not only the largest cities but also their suburban surroundings, particularly the Poznań, Piaseczno, and Wołomin districts. This signals that after a period of dominance by large regional hubs, infrastructure located closer to metropolitan areas and their suburbs will play an increasingly important role.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">Smaller Packages, Greater Frequency</h2>Not only is the scale of demand changing, but also its character. In the coming decade, more mature consumer cohorts will become increasingly important, purchasing differently than younger groups. They use e-commerce more frequently, but their shopping baskets are smaller. Purchases by older people are most often related to health, daily convenience, fresh products, and ready meals. They're also usually more deliberate, which may limit the share of returns.For the warehouse market, this means a shift from servicing large, less frequent orders to a model based on greater frequency, smaller shipments, and more precise order picking. This is also an argument for developing a more distributed logistics network and buildings that can be easily adapted to new product categories and processes.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">E-grocery and Cold Chain Create a New Growth Vector</h2>The effects of these changes are most visible in two segments that JLL considers key megatrends for logistics through 2035: e-grocery and cold chain (storage and distribution of products at controlled temperature). This is where two independent processes meet: retail digitalization and population aging. On one hand, mature consumers are increasingly comfortable using online channels for everyday purchases. On the other, the growing&nbsp;number of seniors increases demand for medicines, medical products, fresh products, ready meals, and deliveries requiring controlled temperature. As a result, the cold supply chain ceases to be a specialized segment of limited importance and becomes one of the most promising market areas. According to JLL, this is where structural demand growth meets a real supply gap. Cold chain offers higher rents, a more defensive profile, and typically longer leases, because relocating controlled-temperature operations is significantly more difficult and expensive than for a standard warehouse.<h2 style="text-align:justify;">The Investment Market Will Become More Selective</h2>Demographic change is also increasingly affecting risk valuation methods. In JLL's assessment, the warehouse market is ceasing to be a homogeneous asset class. The difference between buildings that can be technically adapted to new operating models and those that base their value solely on today's demand will grow. For investors, it's becoming increasingly important not only whether an asset is leased and generating income, but also whether it has a credible competitiveness scenario in five, seven, or ten years.<blockquote>"From an investor's perspective, the warehouse market is ceasing to be homogeneous. The difference between assets that have the ability to adapt to alternative models beyond typical logistics and those that base their value mainly on today's demand is growing increasingly clear. In the context of upcoming demographic changes, key factors in asset selection will be location and the highest technical standard - floor load capacity around 6 tons per square meter, clear height of 12 meters, and appropriate electrical connection availability. This operational flexibility will translate directly into asset liquidity in the investment market. Trends such as e-grocery and cold chain are already creating new investment opportunities today, as exemplified by the May transaction for the sale of the Panattoni Auchan Wilcza Góra building to French fund Corum,"&nbsp;says Michał Mania, Senior Director, Capital Markets, JLL.</blockquote>

Tomasz Mika from JLL presenting a report on the Polish warehouse market and the impact of demographic changes on commercial real estate in Poland through 2035.